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Introduction
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Definition: Possession-Adjusted (PAdj) metrics are used in football to adjust defensive statistics based on the amount of possession a team has during a match.
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Purpose: These metrics aim to provide a more accurate reflection of a player's defensive contributions by accounting for the time their team spends without the ball.
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Calculation: PAdj metrics are calculated by adjusting raw defensive statistics like tackles and interceptions to a standard possession rate, often 50%.
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Example: If a team has 60% possession, a player's raw defensive actions are adjusted to reflect what they might have achieved with only 50% possession.
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Usefulness: PAdj metrics help compare players from teams with different playing styles, particularly those with high or low possession rates.
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Criticism: Some argue that PAdj metrics do not fully capture a player's defensive quality, as they focus on quantity rather than the context or quality of actions.
Definition and Purpose [1]
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Definition: Possession-Adjusted (PAdj) metrics adjust defensive statistics to account for the amount of possession a team has.
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Purpose: They aim to provide a fair comparison of defensive contributions across teams with varying possession levels.
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Context: Teams with high possession typically have fewer defensive actions, which PAdj metrics help to normalize.
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Relevance: These metrics are particularly useful for evaluating defenders in possession-dominant teams.
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Terminology: Often abbreviated as PAdj, these metrics are a staple in modern football analytics.
Calculation Method [1]
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Standardization: PAdj metrics adjust raw defensive stats to a standard possession rate, often 50%.
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Formula: The formula involves dividing the player's defensive actions by their team's possession time and multiplying by a standard possession time.
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Example: A player with 10 tackles in a team with 60% possession would have their tackles adjusted to reflect a 50% possession scenario.
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Adjustment: This adjustment helps to compare players from teams with different possession styles.
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Complexity: The calculation requires accurate possession data and understanding of the team's playing style.
Examples [1]
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Bournemouth vs. Manchester City: In a match where Man City had 80% possession, Bournemouth's player had 10 interceptions, adjusted to 7.06 PAdj interceptions.
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player comparison: A player with fewer raw interceptions in a high-possession team may have a higher PAdj value than a player with more interceptions in a low-possession team.
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match analysis: PAdj metrics can be used to analyze player performance in specific matches, highlighting defensive contributions relative to possession.
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team strategy: Teams with different possession strategies can be compared using PAdj metrics to understand defensive effectiveness.
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player evaluation: Scouts and analysts use PAdj metrics to evaluate potential signings from teams with varying possession styles.
Benefits [1]
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Fair Comparison: PAdj metrics allow for fair comparison of players from teams with different possession styles.
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Insightful Analysis: They provide deeper insights into a player's defensive contributions beyond raw statistics.
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team evaluation: Teams can use PAdj metrics to evaluate their defensive strategies and player effectiveness.
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Scouting: Scouts use these metrics to identify players who perform well in different possession contexts.
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performance tracking: Coaches and analysts track player performance over time using PAdj metrics.
Criticisms [2]
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quality vs. quantity: Critics argue that PAdj metrics focus on the quantity of actions rather than their quality.
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contextual limitations: They may not fully capture the context or quality of defensive actions.
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Complexity: The calculation and interpretation of PAdj metrics can be complex and require detailed data.
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Bias: There is a potential bias towards players in teams with extreme possession styles.
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Interpretation Challenges: Analysts may struggle to interpret PAdj metrics without considering team tactics and playing style.
Applications in Football Analytics [1]
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Player Evaluation: PAdj metrics are used to evaluate player performance across different possession contexts.
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Team Strategy: Analysts use these metrics to assess and refine team defensive strategies.
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Scouting: Scouts use PAdj metrics to identify potential signings who excel in various possession scenarios.
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performance analysis: Coaches analyze player performance using PAdj metrics to inform training and tactics.
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data-driven decisions: Clubs use PAdj metrics to make data-driven decisions in player recruitment and development.
Related Videos
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<div class="-md-ext-youtube-widget"> { "title": "Different Stages of Being In Possession in Football", "link": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RS8ozNCRo-k", "channel": { "name": ""}, "published_date": "Dec 7, 2021", "length": "4:42" }</div>
<div class="-md-ext-youtube-widget"> { "title": "Models for evaluating players part 4: Possession chain models", "link": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VAdzaid8L8", "channel": { "name": ""}, "published_date": "Oct 6, 2020", "length": "26:35" }</div>
<div class="-md-ext-youtube-widget"> { "title": "Different Stages of Being Out of Possession in Football", "link": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59Qvx0Q-P20", "channel": { "name": ""}, "published_date": "Mar 10, 2021", "length": "7:05" }</div>